Keyboard Warriors: Cyber Warfare and the Changing Face of War
“Be afraid and expect the worst”
That was the message that accompanied the recent cyber attack on over 70 state websites in Ukraine. Such an ominous tone has sparked fear of an impending Russian invasion and drawn into sharp focus the issue of cyber warfare.
So…what’s happening? It’s complicated. Much of the tension stems from Ukraine’s potential relationship with NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). Ukraine has expressed interest in NATO membership – a move fiercely opposed by Russia as a threat to its own national security. In the face of such uncertainty, speculation abounds regarding potential outcomes to the crisis, but with an estimated 100,000 Russian troops gathered on the Ukrainian border there are fears we could be on the verge of the world’s first true cyber war.
What exactly is cyber warfare? Opinions vary and no widely accepted definition of cyber warfare exists. For some, it is an imminent, existential threat. For others, it does not constitute ‘war’ at all.
Most definitions involve the use of computer technology to disrupt the computer systems of another state but with continued ambiguity there is significant debate surrounding how international law should be applied to cyber operations.
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) maintains that cyber warfare and cyber weapons are subject to existing international law. What does this mean? In theory, a lot. Most notably it means that indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks are forbidden, as are attacks targeted at civilians. This is complicated however by the difficulty in conclusively identifying attackers – how can you hope to hold someone accountable without evidence of who conducted the attack?
As our lives become increasingly digitalised, the characteristics of warfare continue to shift to reflect this technological change. Such methods are not new to Ukraine. The December 2015 attack in Western Ukraine which left 230,000 residents without power was the first confirmed hack to take down a power grid. The capital, Kyiv, experienced a similar attack a year later.
Western analysts have labelled this proposed combination of conventional and non-conventional warfare as “hybrid warfare” and the potential implications are truly frightening. The ability to take down power grids, disrupt water supplies, and block communication systems would fundamentally change the way that we view conflict.
Tellingly, NATO - yep, they’re back again - asserts that international law and its defensive mandate applies to cyberspace as to any other theatre of operation – meaning cyber operations against any individual member would be sufficient to potentially start a war…
With an estimated 100+ states having developed or currently developing cyber warfare capacities, we could be witnessing the end of traditional warfare. With so much at stake, is it time for the international community to finally commit to effective cyber warfare regulation? Just in case “the worst” does arrive…
